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Economic   Housing Update Frank Nothaft Chief Economist September 13, 2018
Economic   Housing Outlook      Outlook for economy and interest rates     Home mortgage originations     Is U.S. entering...
Macroeconomic Backdrop Positive 8  August 2018 Unemployment 3.9  Forecast  Dec 2018 3.7 , 49-year Low  GDP Growth Forecast...
When Will the Recession Hit  When do you expect the beginning of the next recession  Percent of respondents      Expansion...
Are Tariffs Good or Bad for the U.S. Economy  The Trump Administration has imposed, or threatened to impose, tariffs on a ...
Mortgage Rates Heading Up Rates today at 4.6   forecast to rise to 4.8  by Dec. 2018   5.1  by Dec. 2019  Interest Rate on...
More Purchase, Less Refi in 2018 and 2019 Loan counts down 10  - 15  in 2018 from 2017  Loan counts more stable 2018 - 202...
Cash Out Refinancing Reemerging  In 2012, 10  of refinances were cashout  2018 projected near 40   Cash out refinances as ...
When Rates Rise, Refi Credit Scores Fall  Refi Credit Scores Dip 10 points For Each 0.6  Rise in Mortgage Rates  30-Year F...
Lack of Supply Creates Drag on Sales Supply Is Low and It Is Selling Quickly Days on Market  Months  Supply Available for ...
Premium  6   San Jose San Francisco  4  2   Seattle  0   Los Angeles  -2  Discount  Percent Difference Between List Price ...
Migration to Las Vegas Adds to Buyer Demand Most net in-migration were Californians buying in Las Vegas  Source  CoreLogic...
U.S. HPI Up 6  mid-2018, Forecast 5-6  in 2019, 2020 July 2018  5  above pre-Recession peak, but 14  below after inflation...
Las Vegas Home Prices Had Bigger Boom and Bust Las Vegas prices fell 61  between 2006 peak and 2012 trough, vs 33  drop in...
Las Vegas HPI Up 13  YOY, Project 8-9  in 2019, 2020 Las Vegas HPI for July 2018 20  below March 2006  almost 40  below, i...
Price and Mortgage Rate Rise Has Eroded Affordability Las Vegas mortgage payment up 19  last year, 34  last 3 years  infla...
Average Equity Gain per Homeowner U.S.   16,330 per home  Nevada   31,000 per home  U.S.  Aggregate    1 trillion  Las Veg...
HELOC Volume Projected to Hold Steady Home Improvement HELOC Gain in 2018 Forecast To Offset Decline in Other HELOCs  Bill...
Las Vegas HELOC Lending Up, Less Growth in 2018 Annual Stand-Alone HELOC Originations in Las Vegas Metro Area  Number  16,...
Las Vegas  Single-family Rents Up Too  Single-family rents up 25  during last 6 years Rent Growth  12-month percent change...
Are We Entering a Home-Price Bubble  Percent of MSAs Overvalued 70  60   November 2006 68  Of Metros Overvalued  May 2003 ...
Overvaluation Concentrated Market Conditions Indicator  MCI   Source  CoreLogic HPI and Market Conditions Indicator throug...
Price-to-Rent Ratio Confirms MCI  P-to-R growth   60      price exceeds level consistent with U.S. cap rate  Price-to-Rent...
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017  Impact on Owner-Occupied Housing 1. Lowered maximum loan size for interest deductibility on...
Economic   Housing Outlook     Outlook for economy  good  and interest rates  higher      Home mortgage originations     M...
Where to find more information Look for regular updates to our housing forecast, commentary and data at http   www.corelog...